215
FXUS62 KTBW 292350
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
750 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING, BUT THESE WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THIS EVENING,
BUT COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AT ALMOST ANYTIME.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY JUST SOME CLOUDS STREAM
WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOME MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS WINDS DIMINISH SOME AND THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP.
OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS EVENING
AS A MORE FEW SHOWERS MOVE WEST. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT REAL CHANCE
FOR SEEING MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER 18Z MONDAY WHEN
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE WEST. GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO 6 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MID-MORNING
MONDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A STALLED OUT FRONT IN SOUTH FLORIDA IS THE FOCUS FOR EXTRA CLOUD
COVER AND ON AND OFF SHOWERS IN SW FLORIDA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPING
IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY MONDAY THE STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
WINDS TO START TO CALM DOWN. HOWEVER THE EXTRA MOISTURE WILL BE
STICKING AROUND. THE EXTRA MOISTURE PLUS THE EASTERLY BREEZE
STAYING IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION ON THE WEST
COAST IN THE EVENING.
RIDGING WILL START TO SETTLE IN BY WEDNESDAY AND SIT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL GO DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS WILL BE
THE MID 60'S EACH MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WINDS WILL START TO COME DOWN THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. WE WILL
ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW THAT
WILL START TO DRIFT OFF THE WEST COAST MONDAY EVENING. STRONG
RIDGING WILL COME OVER THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EVERY EVENING CLOSE TO THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE STALLED OUT FRONT THAT BROUGHT US WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM DOWN. WE
WILL ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE NEAR THE COAST. RHS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVEL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
CHANCES REMAIN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 67 85 68 86 / 10 40 10 50
FMY 67 85 67 86 / 10 50 10 40
GIF 66 84 67 85 / 10 50 10 50
SRQ 66 85 66 85 / 10 40 10 40
BKV 61 86 62 87 / 10 40 10 50
SPG 71 85 71 86 / 10 40 10 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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