787
FXUS62 KTBW 300702
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W/SW ACROSS THE SE U.S. NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUPPORTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES OVER W FL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR BEFORE SPREADING/DEVELOPING WESTWARD
TOWARD COASTAL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT FOSTERED BY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TOWARD IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW, AND OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM INTERIOR
CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES COASTAL AREAS. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS, WITH
MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TENTH AND QUARTER INCH, WITH AROUND
A 30-40% CHANCE OR SO OF HIGHER AMOUNTS, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORED TO
OCCUR WITH ANY LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS, MOST LIKELY
CONFINED TO SRN INTERIOR AND SWFL LOCATIONS ALONG WITH COASTAL
WCFL. RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL TRANSLATE TO
WEAKER WINDS AND GUSTS COMPARED TO SUNDAY, HOWEVER SOME BREEZINESS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WARMING UP BY A
FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK,
RESULTING IN SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED
EASTERLY FLOW AND ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY POTENTIAL LOCALLY, WHILE TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MID WEEK, POTENTIALLY TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF RECORD HIGH TERRITORY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
AREA MAY BREAK DOWN OR SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE THERE REMAIN
INCONSISTENCIES REGARDING TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE, WITH PREVAILING EASTERLY
FLOW AND OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS INDICATED WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA
FOR MOST TERMINALS AS SHOWERS ADVECT WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA,
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SPURRED BY INTERACTION WITH
THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
RIDGING NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK, TURNING ONSHORE LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW LOCALLY
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS TURNING ONSHORE
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE
EVENING. NO MINIMUM RH OR OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 84 67 86 67 / 40 10 40 0
FMY 84 67 87 66 / 50 10 40 0
GIF 84 65 86 65 / 40 0 40 0
SRQ 84 66 85 66 / 40 10 40 0
BKV 86 60 88 61 / 30 0 40 0
SPG 85 70 86 70 / 40 10 40 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
HURT
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