299
FXUS62 KTBW 301259
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT
030-040K FT IN SW FL WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND A FEW GUSTS. THIS
AFTERNOON THE W COAST SEABREEZE WILL STAY PINNED TO THE COAST WITH
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHRA AND A FEW TSRA FOR TEMPO MVFR
VSBY/CIGS CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS THRU 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT E WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W/SW ACROSS THE SE U.S. NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUPPORTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES OVER W FL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR BEFORE SPREADING/DEVELOPING WESTWARD
TOWARD COASTAL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT FOSTERED BY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TOWARD IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW, AND OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM INTERIOR
CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES COASTAL AREAS. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS, WITH
MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TENTH AND QUARTER INCH, WITH AROUND
A 30-40% CHANCE OR SO OF HIGHER AMOUNTS, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORED TO
OCCUR WITH ANY LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS, MOST LIKELY
CONFINED TO SRN INTERIOR AND SWFL LOCATIONS ALONG WITH COASTAL
WCFL. RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL TRANSLATE TO
WEAKER WINDS AND GUSTS COMPARED TO SUNDAY, HOWEVER SOME BREEZINESS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WARMING UP BY A
FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK,
RESULTING IN SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED
EASTERLY FLOW AND ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY POTENTIAL LOCALLY, WHILE TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MID WEEK, POTENTIALLY TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF RECORD HIGH TERRITORY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
AREA MAY BREAK DOWN OR SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE THERE REMAIN
INCONSISTENCIES REGARDING TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
RIDGING NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK, TURNING ONSHORE LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW LOCALLY
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS TURNING ONSHORE
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE
EVENING. NO MINIMUM RH OR OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 84 67 86 67 / 50 20 40 0
FMY 84 67 87 66 / 60 40 40 0
GIF 84 65 86 65 / 50 10 40 0
SRQ 84 66 85 66 / 60 40 40 0
BKV 86 60 88 61 / 40 10 40 0
SPG 85 70 86 70 / 50 30 40 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...SHIVELEY
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