599
FXUS62 KTBW 221112
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
712 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLIGHT
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE C/E U.S. THIS MORNING
WITH W/NW FLOW LOCALLY, WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
SEABOARD INTO THE SE U.S./N GULF WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOCALLY. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH GRADUAL MOISTENING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE C/E
U.S. LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ALOFT WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE SE U.S. OVER
THE WEEKEND. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO E/SE LATE
WEEK, VEERING FURTHER TO W/SW OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. RESULTING UPTICK
IN MOISTURE WILL SPUR HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE INTERIOR WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM
BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE
LOW/MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON, TO THE MID/UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK, AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
HAZARDOUS EARLY MORNING MARINE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
THROUGH THE DAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH OF THE
WATERS, THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTH AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS
NORTH OF THE WATERS, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
GRADUAL MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS FLOW REMAINS E/SE WITH RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL RHS REMAIN POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS, MAINLY NORTH
OF I-4, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. WINDS
BECOME W/SW OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND THE RIDGING SINKS SOUTHWARD, WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 84 65 85 67 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 85 64 85 64 / 0 0 10 20
GIF 82 61 85 62 / 0 0 20 10
SRQ 85 64 84 64 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 85 56 86 58 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 85 69 86 69 / 0 0 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
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