428
FXUS62 KTBW 230029
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
829 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLIGHT
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 827 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE GULF AND FL
STRAITS/CUBA REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH IT SO THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO
TOMORROW FOR THE TBW CWA. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A GRADUALLY MOISTENING TREND INTO THURSDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS A TOUCH HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A BIT WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR INTERIOR AREAS
AND MID 60S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHICH WILL BE A BIT MORE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE A
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE BOUNDARY HELPS
SHIFT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SOUTHWARD, AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN FEATURES LOW RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY ESE
WINDS, THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE AT COASTAL SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION, LIGHT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP MOSTLY IN SWFL BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING TOMORROW, BUT
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL
VSBY IMPACTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH A TURN ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. NO
SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 84 65 85 67 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 85 63 85 65 / 0 0 20 20
GIF 82 61 85 63 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 84 63 84 65 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 84 56 87 58 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 84 70 85 71 / 0 0 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page