528
FXUS62 KTBW 231114
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
714 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST
- WARMING TREND THROUGH WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SITES, BUT ALSO EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ALONG I-75, LIKELY EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS. TIMING IS
21Z AND LATER, ENDING BY 03Z OR SO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING, WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY TREKKING ACROSS THE
GULF, UNDERCUTTING RIDGING OVER THE C/E U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOST
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS CONFINED TO FAR S FL/FL STRAITS, HOWEVER AN
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY LOCALLY LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED INTO THE W
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALONG THE N GULF, WITH E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUING LOCALLY. THIS GENERAL SETUP HOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS, AND INCREASING MOISTURE YIELDING
GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM, FOCUSED TOWARD THE INTERIOR. A COLD
FRONT SINKS INTO THE SE U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND SHUNTING THE RIDGE
AXIS SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA CAUSING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO
GRADUALLY VEER TO W/SW WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS
PWATS CLIMB TOWARD 1.5 INCHES, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PENINSULA, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES CONTINUING
TO FOCUS TOWARD THE INTERIOR AND LOWER CHANCES TOWARD THE COAST,
WITH THE FLOW REGIME SETUP FAVORING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON PERIOD FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES. RIDGING SHIFTS BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AND TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING
FROM THE LOW/MID 80S TODAY, TO THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
E/SE WINDS OVER THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN GRADUALLY VEERING
TO W/SW OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTH OF THE WATERS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, THEN DIMINISHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK OVER THE WATERS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
E/SE WINDS LOCALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO W/SW DURING THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLES NORTH OF THE AREA. INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER THE PENINSULA WITH LIGHT
WINDS LOCALLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 66 86 68 / 0 10 10 0
FMY 85 65 87 67 / 10 20 20 10
GIF 84 63 87 65 / 10 10 20 0
SRQ 84 64 84 65 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 86 57 87 58 / 10 10 10 0
SPG 85 70 86 71 / 0 10 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
PREVIOUS...HURT
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