725
FXUS62 KTBW 231827
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
227 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE STATE, LEADING TO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED EAST OF THE STATE,
KEEPING A SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA,
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE
COAST. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THE WEEKEND, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVERHEAD WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THIS SHIFT AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
PLACE, WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SITES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THEY HAVE COME DOWN A BIT AND THE PROB30
GROUP COULD BE REMOVED EARLY. ANY LINGERING RAIN ENDS AFTER 03Z
OR SO, THEN NO CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR SETUP IS FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST/WEST THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLES NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT THEN DIMINISH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW, THEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST, THEN DIMINISH AGAIN NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. OVERALL, DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE, BUT NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 67 86 68 87 / 10 10 0 10
FMY 65 86 66 88 / 20 20 10 20
GIF 63 87 65 89 / 10 20 0 30
SRQ 65 84 65 84 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 57 86 58 88 / 10 10 0 20
SPG 71 85 72 86 / 10 10 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CARLISLE
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