217
FXUS62 KTBW 241845
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE,
TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS REGION AND THIS WILL PULL POCKETS OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE COULD SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF THEY DEVELOP, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL MAX OUT AT
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
TO MID 60S. ONSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING
ON SATURDAY.
A CARBON COPY OF TODAY IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE LINGERS SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST.
LONG TERM (SUN-THU)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER U/L TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BUT NOT FOR EVERYONE.
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST THE ACTION NORTH OF I-4. DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. HIGHS COULD CLIMB UP TO LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ONSHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST TO THE I-75
CORRIDOR. IF THEY DEVELOP SOME COULD BE NEAR TAF SITES, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TODAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST AND EAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SMALL INCREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OUR INTERIOR
AREAS DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING ONSHORE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS
FROM THE NORTH WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 87 70 86 / 0 10 10 10
FMY 66 88 68 88 / 10 20 10 10
GIF 65 89 66 90 / 10 30 10 30
SRQ 65 85 68 84 / 0 10 0 10
BKV 58 89 61 87 / 0 10 10 20
SPG 71 86 73 85 / 0 10 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page