002
FXUS62 KTBW 242323
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
723 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS MOVING TO THE ESE AS THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS TO MATCH LATEST RADAR TRENDS,
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE,
TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS REGION AND THIS WILL PULL POCKETS OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE COULD SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF THEY DEVELOP, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL MAX OUT AT
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
TO MID 60S. ONSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING
ON SATURDAY.
A CARBON COPY OF TODAY IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE LINGERS SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST.
LONG TERM (SUN-THU)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER U/L TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BUT NOT FOR EVERYONE.
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST THE ACTION NORTH OF I-4. DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. HIGHS COULD CLIMB UP TO LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT/VRB
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST INTO SATURDAY AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHRA MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY MOSTLY IN INTERIOR AREAS BUT ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST AND EAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SMALL INCREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OUR INTERIOR
AREAS DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING ONSHORE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS
FROM THE NORTH WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 67 87 70 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 85 66 88 68 / 10 10 10 0
GIF 86 64 90 66 / 10 10 20 10
SRQ 84 65 85 68 / 0 0 10 0
BKV 86 58 89 60 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 85 72 86 73 / 0 0 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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