419
FXUS62 KTBW 251105
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
705 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
FOR OUR WEEKEND RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80'S. HIGH RES MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW PW IN THE AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5. THIS SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DEVELOP
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR OF THAT STATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
AS WE START OUR NEXT WORK WEEK WE WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL SEE A FEW SHOWER IN THE
INTERIOR DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS CUTTING OFF ANY SHOWER CHANCES
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOW
90'S EACH AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AROUND 5 KNOTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
RHS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SMALL INCREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OUR INTERIOR
AREAS HOWEVER THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 70 86 71 / 10 0 20 10
FMY 88 68 88 69 / 10 0 10 0
GIF 90 66 89 68 / 20 10 40 10
SRQ 84 68 83 69 / 0 0 10 0
BKV 89 61 86 64 / 10 10 30 10
SPG 86 73 85 74 / 0 0 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
PREVIOUS...SHIVELEY
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