727
FXUS62 KTBW 251821
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
221 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MOVING A BACK-DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WE
WILL KEEP ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND. DRIER WEATHER PERSISTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NATURE
COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOG CHANCES TONIGHT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO
RED FLAG CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, BUT
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OTHERWISE. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
ANTICIPATED, BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 85 70 88 / 0 10 0 10
FMY 68 88 68 89 / 10 10 0 10
GIF 66 90 67 90 / 10 30 10 30
SRQ 67 83 68 87 / 0 10 0 10
BKV 60 88 64 91 / 0 20 10 20
SPG 73 85 74 88 / 0 10 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CARLISLE
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