614
FXUS62 KTBW 252351
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
751 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
BULK OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS PUSHED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE REGION, WHICH WILL CREATE
ONSHORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH RATHER QUICKLY INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NEAR THE COAST. DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR AND ALONG THE
COAST, AND THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MOVING A BACK-DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WE
WILL KEEP ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND. DRIER WEATHER PERSISTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NATURE
COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CIGS AOA120 WILL ADVECT OVER ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.
FEW-SCT 040-050 WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY VCNTY LAL WITH LCL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO
RED FLAG CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, BUT
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OTHERWISE. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
ANTICIPATED, BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 70 85 70 / 10 0 10 0
FMY 89 68 88 68 / 20 10 10 0
GIF 90 66 90 67 / 30 10 30 10
SRQ 84 67 83 68 / 10 0 10 0
BKV 89 60 88 64 / 10 0 20 10
SPG 86 73 85 74 / 10 0 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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