823
FXUS62 KTBW 261827
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
227 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS PUSHED THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INLAND AND WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY ONCE THIS BOUNDARY MEETS THE EAST COAST VERSION MORE
TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLOW
SHIFTS TO MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BACK-DOOR
BOUNDARY PASS OVER THE STATE AND WE'LL LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE COULD END UP BEING CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS PINNED.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION, THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE NATURE COAST REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS
BEFORE STALLING. OUR NEXT, AND HOPEFULLY BETTER, RAIN CHANCE COMES
ON SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION. ALSO SEEING SOME EARLY HINTS AT SHOWERS NEAR THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AFTER 18Z TOMORROW, SO HAVE NOT PUT ANYTHING EXPLICITLY
IN THE TAFS, BUT WORTH MENTIONING FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO
RED FLAG CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
OTHERWISE. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT NO WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT FOG IS ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 89 69 90 / 0 20 10 0
FMY 67 90 68 91 / 0 10 10 0
GIF 67 89 67 90 / 0 20 0 0
SRQ 68 89 67 89 / 0 10 10 0
BKV 63 90 61 91 / 0 10 0 0
SPG 74 89 73 90 / 0 20 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CARLISLE
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