771
FXUS62 KTBW 270649
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
249 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BRINGING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN SW FLORIDA. BESIDES THAT WE CAN EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S. AFTER THE FRONT PASSAGE
WE WILL SEE SOME DRIER AIR FILTER INTO OUR MID LAYERS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ALL WEEK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE ALONG THE NATURE COAST ON THURSDAY AS A
QUICK MOVING FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED STORMS. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALSO HELP TO BRING MORE SUNSHINE
KEEPING HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT HEADING OUR WAY. WE WILL START SEEING SOME INCREASED MOISTURE
AHEAD ON THE FRONT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AS WE HEAD INTO OUR SUNDAY THAT IS WHEN WE START SEEING
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS. THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWING BRING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY WE WILL JUST KEEP
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING
BELOW 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A WEAK COLD WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL START TO GO DOWN
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
RHS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON
FOR THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY BRING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN SW FLORIDA. BESIDES THAT WE CAN
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 68 90 70 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 90 68 91 68 / 10 10 0 0
GIF 88 66 90 67 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 89 67 90 69 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 89 59 92 62 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 89 72 90 73 / 10 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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