624
FXUS62 KTBW 271822
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
222 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG
SWFL COAST.
- SUNNY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTINUES. EXTRA MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWFL WHERE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN, LIMITING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. A LITTLE EXTRA
MOISTURE MOVES IN ALONG THE NATURE COAST THURSDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODELS CURRENTLY DIFFER ON TIMING AND DURATION, BUT OVERALL,
MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK. WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES, AND HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR SWFL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
MOSTLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER CENTRAL FL IS BRINGING A LITTLE
EXTRA MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR SWFL. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWER AND STORMS AND
INCREASED WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH TODAY. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN TOMORROW, WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 90 70 88 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 68 91 68 89 / 20 0 0 0
GIF 66 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 66 90 68 86 / 20 0 0 0
BKV 60 91 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 73 90 73 86 / 20 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
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