714
FXUS62 KTBW 280000
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST FROM
TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.
- FAIR, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NATURE COAST THURSDAY, THEN MUCH BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST. SOME LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, BUT
MAINLY FROM AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. THESE SHOULD LIFT
AND DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE MID
80S ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT MAINLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
AROUND THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR NORTH, WHICH INCLUDES TPA AND
LAL. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH GUSTY
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 T 15 KNOTS EARLY TONIGHT DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO 4 TO 7 KNOTS. EAST WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY, THEN SHIFT
TO WEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BAY AND SEA
BREEZE DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTINUES. EXTRA MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWFL WHERE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN, LIMITING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. A LITTLE EXTRA
MOISTURE MOVES IN ALONG THE NATURE COAST THURSDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODELS CURRENTLY DIFFER ON TIMING AND DURATION, BUT OVERALL,
MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK. WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES, AND HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
MOSTLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER CENTRAL FL IS BRINGING A LITTLE
EXTRA MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR SWFL.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND INCREASED WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH TODAY. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN TOMORROW, WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 90 70 88 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 68 91 68 89 / 20 0 0 0
GIF 66 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 66 90 68 86 / 20 0 0 0
BKV 60 91 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 73 90 73 86 / 20 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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