276
FXUS62 KTBW 280702
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- FAIR, WARM, AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NATURE COAST THURSDAY,
THEN MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST THROUGH
FLORIDA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
STATE TODAY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE, WITH NEAR ZERO PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. ON
THURSDAY, A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE GULF AND
INTO FLORIDA WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND STALLS OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES. DESPITE THE RAIN
CHANCES, THE FRONT WILL NOT ADVANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH DURING THIS
INITIAL PUSH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY.
DURING THE WEEKEND, A DEEPER SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW AND GIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A STRONGER PUSH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4, AND
THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO CLEANLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, LINGERING
MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY WILL DROP TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER
NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH THE LARGEST DROPS IN TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS COULD PUSH WEST INTO AREA TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING, CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH AROUND 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY TURNING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT, WITH
CAUTIONARY OR PERHAPS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
A DRY AIR MASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HIGH DISPERSION
INDICES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 70 88 73 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 91 69 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 91 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 88 69 85 70 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 91 61 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 90 73 87 75 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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