273
FXUS62 KTBW 281826
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
226 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- FAIR, WARM, AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NATURE COAST THURSDAY,
THEN MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM
AND MOSTLY DRY OVER FLORIDA TODAY AND TOMORROW. BY THURSDAY, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL TILL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NATURE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, AS
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAILS TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, OVER THE WEEKEND A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DIP DOWN INTO FLORIDA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA STARTING WITH THE NATURE COAST
SATURDAY THEN SPREADING SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN, THOUGH DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT LINGERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, AFTER A CHILLY MORNING ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL THAT AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE W TO NW THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND MOVES INLAND. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY INLAND. CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS TO TERMINALS WAS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SHIFT
ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS THURSDAY, SHIFTING WINDS MORE WEST SOUTHWEST.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY, INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS, AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CAUTIONARY TO
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM.
RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY INLAND. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH BRINING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 87 72 86 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 69 88 70 89 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 67 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 68 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 61 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 74 85 75 86 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...HURT
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