869
FXUS62 KTBW 282350
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
750 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FAIR, WARM, AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NATURE COAST THURSDAY,
THEN MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
A WARM DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THE SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND TO AROUND THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
EASTERLY PUSH IS MOVING WESTWARD AT THIS TIME AND WILL SHIFT WINDS
BACK TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME MORE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF I-4. THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, WARM, AND DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER INLAND
AREAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR,
AND SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LAL. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES, THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM
AND MOSTLY DRY OVER FLORIDA TODAY AND TOMORROW. BY THURSDAY, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL TILL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NATURE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, AS
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAILS TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, OVER THE WEEKEND A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DIP DOWN INTO FLORIDA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA STARTING WITH THE NATURE COAST
SATURDAY THEN SPREADING SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN, THOUGH DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT LINGERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, AFTER A CHILLY MORNING ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL THAT AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SHIFT
TO ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS THURSDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO A MORE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY, INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS, AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM.
RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY INLAND. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 70 87 72 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 91 69 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 90 67 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 87 68 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 91 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 88 74 85 75 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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