567
FXUS62 KTBW 290705
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
305 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT BRINGS IN MILDER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NATURE COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS THAT SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING IN
20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER PARTS
OF THE NATURE COAST.
DURING THE WEEKEND, A SERIES OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL POOL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT PLUS RAINY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILL BACK INTO THE
AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS COULD CAUSE BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY
DISRUPTIONS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS DURING
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN HEADLINE
CRITERIA. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, WITH OTHERWISE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY,
ALLOWING MARINE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
A DRY AIR MASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. HIGH DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 73 87 72 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 89 70 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 92 69 92 68 / 0 0 10 0
SRQ 85 70 85 69 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 90 65 88 65 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 87 75 86 74 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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