583
FXUS62 KTBW 162348
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
748 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDING ATTM OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
CREATING A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LEVY COUNTY TO WESTERN POLK COUNTY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH HIGH BROKEN CLOUDINESS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CREATE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS HELD CLOSER
TO THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
LOOKING AT THE MORNING SKEW-T WE CAN SEE WE HAVE A LOT OF DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE BIG FACTOR THAT
PREVENTS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FORMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY OUR WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS
TURN SOUTHERLY WHICH HELPS TO INCREASE MOISTURE. THAT ALONG WITH
EASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WE WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SAME CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WEST COAST. WITH THIS REGIME STORMS WILL FORM
MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BY WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS TYPICALLY
PUSHES THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SEEING MAINLY JUST SOME ISOLATED STORMS. BY
FRIDAY FLOW TURNS MORE NEUTRAL FAVORING STORMS IN THE INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AN EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT LAL WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE, HIGH BROKEN CIGS 250 WILL OCCUR AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AROUND
SUNRISE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCT 040-050 BKN250 AT ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING VCNTY ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LCL MVFR
CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WINDS WILL BE STAYING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS
WE SEE A MORE FAVORABLE SET UP TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST. THESE STORMS WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE GULF BY
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SET FOR STORMS WILL
STICK AROUND MID WEEK. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST
STARTING ON MONDAY WITH SPREADS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY. THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 92 74 92 / 10 50 30 30
FMY 74 94 74 94 / 10 70 20 70
GIF 73 92 71 92 / 40 40 10 20
SRQ 73 92 72 94 / 0 60 30 50
BKV 70 94 68 94 / 10 50 10 20
SPG 76 93 75 95 / 0 50 30 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...GIARRATANA
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
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