716
FXUS62 KTBW 171238
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
838 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
- INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA, WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
ADVECT IN EXTRA MOISTURE AND RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA, MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN THE FLOW
PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORS NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES, A FEW STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY, WHICH WILL MODERATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY
AND LIMIT RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY. LATE
IN THE WEEK, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF FLORIDA,
SHIFTING THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
FLOW PATTERN BACK TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH SHOULD GIVE A
SLIGHT BUMP TO RAIN CHANCES AGAIN BY SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BRING A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE STORMS TODAY IS TPA, PGD,
FMY, AND RWS. WINDS WILL START OUT EASTERLY WITH COASTAL SITES
SEEING A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COME IN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING, TURNING ONSHORE NEAR
THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN HEADLINE CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SHIFT WEST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY, PRODUCING LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
WITH A SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY, BUT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 74 92 75 / 70 30 30 10
FMY 95 74 94 74 / 80 20 60 10
GIF 92 71 92 73 / 40 10 20 0
SRQ 92 72 94 73 / 50 40 50 10
BKV 94 68 94 70 / 60 20 10 0
SPG 94 75 95 76 / 60 30 40 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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