079
FXUS62 KTBW 171836
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
236 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
- INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
COMPARING YESTERDAY MORNING SKEW-T TO THIS MORNING YOU CAN SEE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS HAS BROUGHT
OUR PW UP FROM 1.13 TO 1.5 TODAY. THIS EXTRA MOISTURE AND OUR
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD GIVE US SOME
WELCOMED SCATTED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONGER WINDS WITHIN THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WE HEAD INTO OUR WORK WEEK THE MOISTURE WILL BE UNCHANGED BUT
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TYPICALLY PUSHES MUCH OF THE SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOWN TO
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BECAUSE OF THIS WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH SOME ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOP NEAR
THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE THE WHOLE AREA SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BRING A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE STORMS TODAY IS TPA, PGD,
FMY, AND RWS. WINDS WILL START OUT EASTERLY WITH COASTAL SITES
SEEING A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COME IN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. OUR MAIN BOATING HAZARD WILL BE INCREASE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE WEST COAST IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WINDS WILL
ALSO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AND PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN TO 5 TO 10 FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT OUR SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORM. THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 74 92 75 / 70 40 20 0
FMY 95 74 94 74 / 80 40 50 20
GIF 92 71 91 72 / 50 20 10 0
SRQ 92 72 94 73 / 60 40 30 10
BKV 94 68 94 69 / 70 40 10 0
SPG 94 74 94 75 / 60 40 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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