935
FXUS62 KTBW 181215
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
815 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS WEEK, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED EAST OF THE CAROLINAS, AND WILL LARGELY HOLD IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, KEEPING FIRM CONTROL ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA,
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EACH DAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS EACH DAY,
MOSTLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
FOR TODAY, A POCKET OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE WEST OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA, PROHIBITING SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4. FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, MORE
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE
JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT NORTH OF FLORIDA, SHIFTING THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, SHIFTING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER
INLAND THAN WHAT WILL BE SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTER IN TO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY
LIMITING SHOWER CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES. HIGHER
MOISTURE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT THE EAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING, TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GENERALLY HOLD LESS THAN HEADLINE CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EACH DAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS, CAUSING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL SHIFT WEST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
TODAY, LIMITING RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 AND DROPPING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO NEAR CRITICALLY LOW LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH
OF I-4, HUMIDITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASES AGAIN ON
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 75 92 75 / 20 10 50 10
FMY 93 74 93 74 / 50 20 70 20
GIF 92 72 91 72 / 20 0 30 10
SRQ 93 73 93 73 / 40 20 50 20
BKV 94 70 94 69 / 10 0 50 0
SPG 94 75 94 76 / 20 10 50 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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