420
FXUS62 KTBW 181836
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
236 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS WEEK, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
OUR SUMMERTIME CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE GETTING STARTING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASE MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE. OUR
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
FAVOR WEST COAST SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH INLAND AREA MAINLY STAYING DRY.
AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE FIRST THOUGHT WOULD BE THIS WILL
INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER THE LOW ACTUALLY SHIFTS OUR UPPER
LEVEL WINDS MORE NORTHERLY BRINGING A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR AND
KEEPING STORMS CHANCES PRETTY LIMITED (20 TO 30%). THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WITH BE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE WE STILL KEEP SOME HIGH
MOISTURE ALONG WITH HIGH STORM CHANCES.
AS WE HEAD INTO T UPPER LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
WEEKEND MOISTURE COMES BACK WITH PW REACHING AROUND 1.75. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
STILL ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER PW WILL STILL BRING
SOME STORMS IN INLAND LOCATIONS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
NEWEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY
ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS WE HAVE
INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR BOTH TPA AND PIE. SITES SOUTH OF
THAT WILL BE SEEING A VCTS AS STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. WINDS WILL BE OUT THE EAST WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. OUR
MAIN CONCERN TO BOATERS WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS THAT
PUSH OFF OF LAND AND AND INTO THE GULF. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
CAUSE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION WILL HELP TO
MINIMIZE FIRE HAZARDS THIS WEEK. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND AREAS STAYING MOSTLY DRY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 75 91 74 / 30 30 60 20
FMY 93 74 93 74 / 60 10 60 10
GIF 92 73 91 72 / 20 0 30 10
SRQ 93 73 93 73 / 50 30 70 20
BKV 94 70 94 69 / 20 10 40 10
SPG 94 75 94 75 / 40 30 70 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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