676
FXUS62 KTBW 190429
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1229 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS WEEK, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL BE RELATIVELY LOCKED IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
HOLDING THE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AND SOUTH. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
AN U/L LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST TO JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL IN EFFECT CREATE LOWER
HEIGHTS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH WILL AID IN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, THE INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE WILL DECREASE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS WHICH MAY IMPACT
TPA/PIE/PGD/RSW/FMY FOR A FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER LAND EACH DAY THAT WILL PUSH LOCALLY OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS CREATING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 74 91 76 / 60 30 40 10
FMY 92 74 92 73 / 60 20 60 20
GIF 91 72 91 72 / 20 0 30 10
SRQ 93 72 91 74 / 70 30 40 20
BKV 94 69 93 70 / 40 10 30 10
SPG 94 75 93 76 / 60 40 30 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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