719
FXUS62 KTBW 191251
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
851 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS WEEK, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE, PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7
INCHES, WE'LL SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE
COAST AND THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE WEST COAST
LIKE YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY, THEN MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. COULD
SEE A SHIFT TO WESTERLY AT SRQ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONVECTION GETS GOING, OTHERWISE THE OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH TO 4 TO 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL BE RELATIVELY LOCKED IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
HOLDING THE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AND SOUTH. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
AN U/L LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST TO JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL IN EFFECT CREATE LOWER
HEIGHTS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH WILL AID IN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, THE INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE WILL DECREASE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER LAND EACH DAY THAT WILL PUSH LOCALLY OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS CREATING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 74 91 76 / 60 30 40 10
FMY 92 74 92 73 / 60 20 60 20
GIF 91 72 91 72 / 20 0 30 10
SRQ 93 72 91 74 / 70 30 40 20
BKV 94 69 93 70 / 40 10 30 10
SPG 94 75 93 76 / 60 40 30 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...SHIVELEY
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