827
FXUS62 KTBW 191830
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS WEEK, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH THE
SOMEWHAT BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN LEAD TO THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE WEST COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED.
ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF LATER THIS EVENING AND
DISSIPATE WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE EASTERLY FLOW DOES DIMINISH SOME
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND,
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD WHERE IT
SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND OR EAST OF I-75. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LINGERING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
LOWERING HEIGHTS SOME AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES, WE'LL SEE MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FROM
INLAND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE PENINSULA WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH HOLDS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE WE'LL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. COULD
SEE A SHIFT TO WESTERLY AT SRQ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONVECTION GETS GOING, OTHERWISE THE OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH TO 4 TO 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE WEST OFF
LAND. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD CAUSE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE ARE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 91 75 92 / 30 30 20 20
FMY 74 93 74 94 / 20 70 50 40
GIF 72 92 72 92 / 10 50 30 30
SRQ 73 92 74 92 / 40 30 30 20
BKV 68 93 70 94 / 20 20 20 20
SPG 75 93 76 93 / 40 20 20 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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