053
FXUS62 KTBW 200002
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
802 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
LINGERING CONVECTION PERSISTS EARLY THIS EVENING MOSTLY ACROSS
WCFL AND ADJACENT WATERS AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
RADAR ESTIMATES AND LOCAL OB SITES SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF
PINELLAS, NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERN PASCO
INDICATE MAXIMUM LOCAL AREA RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES SO FAR
TODAY WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. SEA BREEZE APPEARS LIKELY
TO WORK DEEPER INTO WCFL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY FLOW
LESSENS A BIT, SHIFTING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EAST
OF I-75 ACROSS WCFL, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SWFL INCLUDING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL AMOUNTS,
AGAIN UP TO 2-3 INCHES IN AREAS WITH HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS, BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MOST OTHERWISE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH THE
SOMEWHAT BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN LEAD TO THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE WEST COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED.
ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF LATER THIS EVENING AND
DISSIPATE WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE EASTERLY FLOW DOES DIMINISH SOME
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND,
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD WHERE IT
SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND OR EAST OF I-75. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LINGERING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
LOWERING HEIGHTS SOME AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES, WE'LL SEE MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FROM
INLAND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE PENINSULA WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH HOLDS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE WE'LL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE BUT WILL LINGER
NEAR TPA/PIE FOR THE INITIAL OR TWO OF THE 00Z CYCLE. DIMINISHED
EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ONSHORE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE SEA BREEZE, WHICH LOOKS TO ADVANCE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS WCFL,
KEEPING TPA/PIE/SRQ CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOWER WITH PROB30 GROUPS,
AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR REMAINING TERMINALS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE WEST OFF
LAND. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD CAUSE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE ARE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 91 75 92 / 30 30 20 20
FMY 74 93 74 94 / 20 70 50 40
GIF 72 92 72 92 / 10 50 30 30
SRQ 73 92 74 92 / 40 30 30 20
BKV 68 93 70 94 / 20 20 20 20
SPG 75 93 76 93 / 40 20 20 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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