146
FXUS62 KTBW 201205
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
AN OVERALL LIGHTER LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING, SEA BREEZE REGIME 2, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND TO AROUND OR JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE, PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES, COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. WITH THE LIGHTER FLOW
THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OR JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY, THEN MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 11 KNOTS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE
BAY/SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO
WESTERLY AT TPA, PIE, AND SRQ, OTHERWISE THE OVERALL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING. LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDING THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE EASTERLY FLOW ISN'T QUITE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH ABOUT 20 TO 30
MILES FURTHER INLAND, WHICH WILL ALSO SHIFT HIGHEST POPS TODAY
TO THE INTERIOR COASTAL COUNTIES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SOUTH. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
AN U/L LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MEANDER OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL IN EFFECT CREATE
LOWER HEIGHTS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH WILL
AID IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THE U/L LOW WILL EXIT
OVER THE WEEKEND, AND A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET BY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS/INCREASED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER LAND EACH DAY WHICH WILL PUSH LOCALLY OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS CAUSING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 75 91 77 / 30 30 20 20
FMY 92 73 93 75 / 60 40 50 20
GIF 92 72 92 74 / 40 30 30 20
SRQ 91 73 91 75 / 30 30 20 10
BKV 93 69 93 71 / 30 20 20 20
SPG 93 75 92 78 / 30 30 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...DAVIS
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