819
FXUS62 KTBW 201845
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND THEN MORE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE
AROUND AND JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL
PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LINGERS EAST OF FLORIDA AND THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW PERSISTS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE MORE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 11 KNOTS,
EXCEPT SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AT TPA, PIE, AND SRQ AS THE BAY/SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS WILL
SETUP LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. THE FLOW HAS
DIMINISHED ENOUGH THAT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO WESTERLY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OFF
OF LAND AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 91 77 92 / 40 20 20 30
FMY 73 93 75 94 / 60 40 20 50
GIF 72 92 74 93 / 40 30 10 40
SRQ 73 91 75 92 / 40 20 10 30
BKV 70 93 73 94 / 30 30 20 30
SPG 76 92 77 93 / 30 20 10 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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