327
FXUS62 KTBW 210036
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
836 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ONE CLUSTER
FOCUSED JUST EAST OF TAMPA BAY AND DRIFTING WEST, AND A BROADER
CLUSTER STRETCHING ACROSS SWFL INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH MINOR FLOODING OR PONDING
OF WATER POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS UNDER THE
HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE EVENING
INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND THEN MORE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE
AROUND AND JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL
PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LINGERS EAST OF FLORIDA AND THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW PERSISTS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE MORE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
IMPACTS POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL HOURS OF OOZ CYCLE FOR TPA/PIE AS
CONVECTION PROPAGATES WEST INTO TAMPA BAY. LOWER CHANCES FOR SRQ
HOWEVER MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IF CONVECTION TO THE EAST COALESCES
AND HOLDS DEEPER INTO THE EVENING. CLEARING BY LATE EVENING WITH
VFR AND EASTERLY WINDS INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND SHIFTING WINDS ONSHORE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL WITH
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. THE FLOW HAS
DIMINISHED ENOUGH THAT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO WESTERLY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OFF
OF LAND AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 91 77 92 / 40 20 20 30
FMY 73 93 75 94 / 60 40 20 50
GIF 72 92 74 93 / 40 30 10 40
SRQ 73 91 75 92 / 40 20 10 30
BKV 70 93 73 94 / 30 30 20 30
SPG 76 92 77 93 / 30 20 10 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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