926
FXUS62 KTBW 210427
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1227 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING. RELATIVELY
STAGNANT PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDING THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO 40 MILES
INLAND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE THE LOCATION
OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SOUTH. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
TUTT CELL OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY
TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL IN EFFECT CREATE LOWER HEIGHTS OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH WILL AID IN INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THE TUTT WILL EXIT OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING AN U/L RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THUS
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET BY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS/INCREASED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT PGD/FMY/RSW WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF TPA/PIE/SRQ, HOWEVER THEY MAY MOVE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST/TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER LAND EACH DAY WHICH WILL PUSH LOCALLY OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS CAUSING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 76 92 78 / 20 20 30 20
FMY 92 75 93 76 / 50 30 50 10
GIF 92 74 93 75 / 40 30 30 20
SRQ 91 75 92 76 / 20 20 20 20
BKV 94 72 94 72 / 20 20 30 20
SPG 93 77 93 78 / 20 10 20 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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