029
FXUS62 KTBW 211412
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1012 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
TODAY IS LOOKING PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES. OVERALL LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND TO AROUND
OR EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY, THEN MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE BAY/SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO WESTERLY AT TPA, PIE, AND SRQ, AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TAF SITES OF PGD, FMY, AND
RSW. THE OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN LATER THIS
EVENING AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING. RELATIVELY
STAGNANT PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDING THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO 40 MILES
INLAND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE THE LOCATION
OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SOUTH. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
TUTT CELL OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY
TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL IN EFFECT CREATE LOWER HEIGHTS OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH WILL AID IN INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THE TUTT WILL EXIT OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING AN U/L RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THUS
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET BY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS/INCREASED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER LAND EACH DAY WHICH WILL PUSH LOCALLY OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS CAUSING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 76 92 78 / 20 20 30 20
FMY 92 75 93 76 / 50 30 50 10
GIF 92 74 93 75 / 40 30 30 20
SRQ 91 75 92 76 / 20 20 20 20
BKV 94 72 94 72 / 20 20 30 20
SPG 93 77 93 78 / 20 10 20 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
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