093
FXUS62 KTBW 211756
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
156 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WITH THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOES SETUP OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE RATHER
HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 INCHES, WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH THROUGH SUNDAY, SEA BREEZE
REGIME 6, TO ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND WITH
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AROUND AND JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EAT TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE, SEA
BREEZE REGIME 7, AND THIS WILL FAVOR COASTAL AREAS FOR THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE EARLY SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO WESTERLY AT TPA, PIE, AND SRQ AS THE BAY/SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND. THE SEA BREEZE COULD ALSO REACH THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TAF SITES OF PGD, FMY, AND RSW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CONVECTION COULD OVERWHELM THIS AND CAUSE WINDS TO
BE RATHER VARIABLE. THE OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS, THEN INCREASE TO 6 TO
10 KNOTS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN
INCREASE SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS COULD REACH CAUTIONARY
LEVELS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS EARLY NEXT WEEK, OTHERWISE THEY
ARE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 92 78 92 / 30 20 20 40
FMY 74 93 76 93 / 40 40 20 60
GIF 74 93 75 93 / 30 20 10 40
SRQ 75 92 76 92 / 20 20 20 30
BKV 73 94 74 94 / 20 30 30 40
SPG 77 93 78 94 / 20 20 20 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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