274
FXUS62 KTBW 221216
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
816 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
TUTT CELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL EXIT THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND AS AN U/L RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH
WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND ABOUT 20
TO 40 MILES EACH AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
FIRST PATTERN CHANGE IN QUITE AWHILE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ONSHORE OUT OF THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL SHIFT HIGHEST POPS TO THE INTERIOR.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL DAILY TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SOME DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT STORM CHANCES TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AT OUR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AIRPORTS. HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SOME
WEAKENING STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO TPA IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BESIDES THAT EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST EXCEPT
FOR A SEABREEZE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER LAND EACH DAY WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS CAUSING LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 77 92 78 / 10 30 40 40
FMY 94 76 94 76 / 40 30 50 40
GIF 93 75 94 76 / 20 20 40 50
SRQ 92 76 92 76 / 10 20 30 30
BKV 95 72 94 72 / 10 30 50 50
SPG 93 78 93 78 / 10 20 30 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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