556
FXUS62 KTBW 221844
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
244 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STICKING AROUND AGAIN TODAY WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ABOUT 10 TO 20 MILES AWAY FROM THE
COAST BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST AFTER SUNSET.
WE WILL START TO SEE MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE STORM CHANCES. THE HIGHEST PW LOOKS TO BE
ON SUNDAY WHERE WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. THE TREND WILL BE THE SAME WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
ABOUT 10 TO 20 MILES AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT MUCH CHANGING FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED WEST
COAST STORMS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY WE WILL START TO SEE A BIG CHANGE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. WINDS WILL CHANGE SOUTHERLY BRINGING SOME DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. BY THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND CROSS OVER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE WHOLE STATE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
|SOME DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT STORM CHANCES TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AT OUR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AIRPORTS. HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SOME
WEAKENING STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO TPA IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BESIDES THAT EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST EXCEPT
FOR A SEABREEZE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGING OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST AND INTO THE GULF FROM THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 78 92 77 / 10 30 30 50
FMY 94 76 93 76 / 30 30 60 50
GIF 93 75 93 75 / 10 20 50 50
SRQ 92 76 91 76 / 10 30 20 50
BKV 95 75 94 73 / 10 30 50 50
SPG 93 78 93 78 / 10 30 20 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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