944
FXUS62 KTBW 222359
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
759 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
AS EXPECTED, STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG WHAT'S LEFT OF A BOUNDARY COLLISION
OVER EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH CO. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND PUSHING OFFSHORE OVER THE BAY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT AND THE ACTIVITY IN SW FL
DIMINISHES CALM CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AD EVENING ON
SATURDAY.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS OVER
THEN NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS CONVECTION AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z, THEREFORE KEPT PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS IN PLACE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE INSTABILITY RUNS OUT.
NONETHELESS, AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE REMAINS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN OVERNIGHT AFTER STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND PREVAILING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE
AGAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 92 77 91 / 30 30 50 70
FMY 76 93 76 93 / 30 60 50 70
GIF 75 93 75 92 / 20 50 50 60
SRQ 76 91 76 92 / 30 20 50 60
BKV 75 94 73 93 / 30 50 50 70
SPG 78 93 78 93 / 30 20 50 60
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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