296
FXUS62 KTBW 230446
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1246 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MIDDLE/LATE NEXT WEEK
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AN U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND ABOUT 20 TO 40 MILES EACH
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BOUNDARY/STORMS LIKELY PUSHING BACK
TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL
LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT
EACH DAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL IMPACT
AREAL COVERAGE/POPS EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE U/L RIDGE EXITS
TO THE EAST AND A WEAK U/L TROUGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND COMBINED WITH THE U/L TROUGH, WILL
CREATE DEEPER WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL ADVECT HIGHER PCPW
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. U/L ENERGY (WITH DAILY DETAILS TO FAR OUT
TO DISCERN ATTM) ASSOCIATED WITH THE U/L TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS IT
TAPS THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE. THIS PATTERN
GENERALLY FAVORS SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ADVECTING ONSHORE EACH DAY WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AND NORTH, AS TRAINING COULD DEVELOP OFF THE INCREASINGLY
WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF
THIS PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL DAILY TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ONSHORE
MID/LATE NEXT AND COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER/SHOWER
ACTIVITY, MAX TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS
DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY TO HIGH BROKEN CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY, AND WILL EXTEND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE VCNTY PGD/FMY/RSW DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND VCNTY PIE/SRQ/TPA/LAL DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...CREATING LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER LAND EACH DAY WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS CAUSING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 77 90 77 / 50 60 60 50
FMY 92 76 93 76 / 60 50 60 30
GIF 93 75 92 75 / 60 60 60 30
SRQ 91 75 91 76 / 40 60 50 40
BKV 94 72 93 72 / 60 60 70 50
SPG 92 77 92 78 / 40 60 50 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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