042
FXUS62 KTBW 231741
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
141 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
OUR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR MAINLY EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY ABOUT 10 TO 20 MILES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THESE STORMS WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST COAST AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE TODAY WITH PW ON THE MORNING SOUNDING AT 1.8 COMPARED TO
1.5 WE SAW YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING MORE
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF CHANGE NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS A LITTLE DRIER AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW STORM CHANCES TO
DROP SLIGHTLY. THE BIGGER CHANGE WILL START ON WEDNESDAY AS OUR
UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO SWITCH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE STATE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORMS MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
VERY SIMILIAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND
BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST WITH A SEABREEZE KICKING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGING THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PUSH TOWARDS
THE COAST AND INTO THE GULF FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF THAT WILL
PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST IN THE MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 76 90 76 / 50 70 60 50
FMY 92 75 93 76 / 50 50 70 30
GIF 93 75 91 75 / 60 80 60 20
SRQ 91 74 91 75 / 40 70 60 40
BKV 94 72 92 73 / 60 80 60 50
SPG 92 76 92 77 / 40 70 60 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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