793
FXUS62 KTBW 060740
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING 100 DEGREES.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA NEXT WEEK PARTICULARLY MID WEEK AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AND LIMITED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO SWFL LOCATIONS. RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDING OVER THE E U.S. AND GULF WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH HEAT
INDICES REACHING 100-105 DEGREES. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA BREEZE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN MODERATE A
BIT BY MID WEEK THROUGH LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS SWFL INTO WCFL
INTO MID WEEK, THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WCFL AND THE NATURE
COAST MID TO LATE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS FALL INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S IN RESPONSE, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM
EASTERLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO MORE SOUTHERLY OVER
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
DRY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND
10 KNOTS. WCFL TERMINALS LIKELY SHIFT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BEFORE RESUMING
EASTERLY AND DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS. MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID WEEK. WINDS REMAIN
EASTERLY, TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MOSTLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DISPERSIONS REMAIN LIKELY
THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS, OTHERWISE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL RHS NORTH
OF I-4 ON SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTERNOONS REMAIN THE PRIMARY FIRE CONCERN.
CORRESPONDING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE CRITICAL RH HOURS LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BECOMING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MID TO LATE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 74 94 79 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 92 72 95 76 / 0 0 20 20
GIF 91 69 94 74 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 93 72 94 77 / 10 10 0 10
BKV 94 68 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 94 74 95 79 / 0 10 0 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
HURT
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