164
FXUS62 KTBW 061748
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
148 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING 100 DEGREES.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA NEXT WEEK PARTICULARLY MID WEEK AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
MORNING SKEW-T SHOWING PW LESS THAN AN INCH THIS MORNING AS DRIER
AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES AT NEAR 0 PERCENT WITH HIGHS WARMING UP TO THE MID 90'S
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO START OUR WORK WEEK ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE MID 90'S. WE WILL SLOWLY SEE MOISTURE RETURNING BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOW 90'S. HOWEVER OUR
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH PW GETTING
BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. AT THE SAME TIME WE SEE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SWITCH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS SHOULD FINALLY BRING SHOWER AND
STORMS BACK TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW.
COASTAL SITES WILL SEE A WESTERLY SEABREEZE KICK IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WE WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT STORMS
ALONG THE WEST COAST RETURNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
CRITICAL RH IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE NATURE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO RED FLAG WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 74 94 79 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 92 72 95 76 / 0 0 20 20
GIF 91 69 94 74 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 93 72 94 77 / 10 10 0 10
BKV 94 68 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 94 74 95 79 / 0 10 0 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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