406
FXUS62 KTBW 070003
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
803 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 803 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HEAT INDICES TOPPING 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING THE MID WEEK AND
BEYOND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT SPREADING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
RIDGING HAS KEPT THE AREA RAIN FREE TODAY AND ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK OVERALL, WITH A SIMILAR BUT EVEN
WARMER DAY FORECASTED FOR TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH EAST WINDS SUNDAY TURNING TO ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WE WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT STORMS
ALONG THE WEST COAST RETURNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
CRITICAL RH IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE NATURE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO RED FLAG WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 94 78 94 / 0 0 10 20
FMY 72 95 76 95 / 0 20 30 30
GIF 69 94 74 95 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 72 94 76 94 / 0 0 10 20
BKV 69 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 75 95 78 95 / 0 0 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLEMING
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
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