045
FXUS62 KTBW 071222
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
822 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 820 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA, PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE RECENT THEME OF RIDGING OVER THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES THIS
MORNING WITH WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL AS A RESULT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND AREAS OF MID/UPPER
90S LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY, WHILE HEAT INDICES OF
100-105 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO SWFL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO
PARTS OF WCFL ON MON-TUE.
RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS BY MID WEEK WITH A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING OVER
THE E U.S. AND LOCAL AREA, WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGING GRADUALLY
SHIFTS INTO THE W ATLANTIC ALLOWING WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
ACROSS ALL OF W FL, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 90S MID WEEK AND UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND,
OFFERING AT LEAST A DROP IN THE BUCKET IN TERMS OF OVERALL RELIEF
FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT PLAGUING THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE
EAST WITH A SEABREEZE SETTING UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL SITES. A SMALL UPTICK IN MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED STORMS IN SW FLORIDA AROUND FMY AND RSW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
RIDGING OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS HOLDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS SPREADING NORTHWARD, PARTICULARLY
FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH MID
WEEK WHILE TURNING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH
THE SEA BREEZE. RIDGING SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY WHILE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE OVER THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RHS FALLING TO
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AREAS FROM AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS. AFTERNOON RHS
WILL FALL TO JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ON MONDAY WITH WINDS ONCE
AGAIN LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS. MOISTURE GRADUALLY RECOVERS THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE LIMITED TO SWFL INTO PARTS OF WCFL
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 78 94 79 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 94 76 95 76 / 20 30 20 30
GIF 93 73 95 76 / 0 0 10 0
SRQ 94 76 94 77 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 95 73 96 75 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 95 78 95 79 / 0 0 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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