646
FXUS62 KTBW 071823
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
223 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 218 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA, PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
MORNING SKEW-T SHOWING PW EVEN LOWER THEN YESTERDAY CONFIRMING THE
DRY AIR IS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP SHOWER CHANCES AT NEAR 0 PERCENT WITH HIGHS WARMING UP TO THE
MID 90'S FOR MOST OF US. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LEE COUNTY
WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCES A FEW STORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS.
BY TUESDAY MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE IN SOUTH FLORIDA ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER STORM CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE, ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL BE SEEING A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. IN THIS FLOW REGIME WE TYPICALLY SEE STORMS
DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-4 WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA STAYS
DRY.
STARTING ON THURSDAY WE WILL SEE THE FLOW SWITCHING SOUTHEASTERLY.
THIS ALONG WITH PW BACK ABOVE 1.75 WILL BRING BETTER STORMS CHANCES
TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE
EAST WITH A SEABREEZE SETTING UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL SITES. A SMALL UPTICK IN MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED STORMS IN SW FLORIDA AROUND FMY AND RSW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WE WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT STORMS
ALONG THE WEST COAST RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
DRIER AIR STILL IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME CRITICAL RHS
ALONG THE NATURE COAST. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO RED
FLAG WILL NOT BE NEEDED. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 78 94 79 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 95 76 95 77 / 30 30 10 30
GIF 93 73 94 75 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 94 76 94 77 / 0 10 10 10
BKV 96 72 96 74 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 95 78 95 79 / 0 10 0 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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