994
FXUS62 KTBW 072347
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
747 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 747 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA, PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BEGAN TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY,
EVIDENCED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AND SHIFT WEST INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH MAINLY
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER WARM AND
MAINLY RAIN FREE DAY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS EVENING,
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND KRSW AND KFMY. THESE SHOWERS
COULD CAUSE BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY DISRUPTIONS AT TIMES, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY AROUND 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WE WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT STORMS
ALONG THE WEST COAST RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
DRIER AIR STILL IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME CRITICAL RHS
ALONG THE NATURE COAST. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO RED
FLAG WILL NOT BE NEEDED. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 94 79 91 / 0 10 10 10
FMY 76 95 77 93 / 30 10 30 20
GIF 73 94 75 91 / 0 10 10 10
SRQ 76 94 77 93 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 72 96 74 92 / 0 10 10 10
SPG 78 95 79 93 / 10 0 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FLEMING
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
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