217
FXUS62 KTBW 080800
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARMTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RECORD HIGHS AGAIN POSSIBLE, WHILE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SWFL LOCATIONS WHERE A FEW EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
ONSHORE, LIMITING IMMEDIATE COASTAL HIGHS TO THE LOWER 90S, WHILE
ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH SOME POCKETS OF
UPPER 90S POSSIBLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 50
PERCENT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY TEMPER MAX
HEAT INDICES INLAND TO AROUND 100 DEGREES, WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO
THE COAST WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE GIVEN
SLIGHTLY MOISTER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE AREA BREAKS DOWN A BIT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE EXTENDING FROM A DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EXPANDING FROM SWFL INTO WCFL,
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY FROM AROUND THE
I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS REMAINING AREAS NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY SHIFTING DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTHWARD PROMPTING FLOW TO SHIFT FROM EASTERLY
TO WESTERLY OVER THE STATE.
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE LOWER/MID 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS,
EXCEPT TURNING ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST. SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR SWFL
TERMINALS IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER CHANCES
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE MENTION THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS
WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY MUCH OF THE WEEK WHILE TURNING
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE, THEN
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
LIMITED FIRE CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW HOURS OF
NEAR-CRITICAL RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NATURE COAST AND WCFL
LOCATIONS, HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEK FURTHER LIMITING
FIRE CONCERNS, WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASING AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 77 92 78 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 95 77 94 76 / 10 30 30 20
GIF 94 73 92 74 / 0 0 10 0
SRQ 94 76 93 77 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 95 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 95 78 93 78 / 0 0 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
HURT
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