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FXUS62 KTBW 081844
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
244 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE NATURE COAST HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S. LUCKILY, DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA, KEEPING DEW
POINTS AND HUMIDITY LOW. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER SWFL
LATER THIS EVENING AND LINGER AFTER SUNSET BEFORE DRIFTING OUT
OVER THE GULF.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE AREA BREAKS DOWN A BIT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE EXTENDING FROM A DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EXPANDING FROM SWFL INTO WCFL,
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY FROM AROUND THE
I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS REMAINING AREAS NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY SHIFTING DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTHWARD PROMPTING FLOW TO SHIFT FROM EASTERLY
TO WESTERLY OVER THE STATE.
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE LOWER/MID 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE ENE. A SHIFT
ONSHORE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN COAST SITES IS EXPECTED AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
SWFL TERMINALS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW NO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FLOW
MAINLY OUT OF THE ENE. AN AFTERNOON SHIFT ONSHORE IS EXPECTED WITH
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW SHOWERS OVER SWFL COULD DRIFT OVER THE
WATER LATER TONIGHT AS THE PUSH WESTWARD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
RH VALUES REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE
AREA, WITH SOME AREAS DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL HELPING TO LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 92 78 91 / 0 10 10 50
FMY 77 94 76 90 / 30 30 30 70
GIF 74 92 75 91 / 0 10 10 60
SRQ 77 93 76 90 / 0 10 20 50
BKV 72 93 74 92 / 0 10 10 50
SPG 78 93 78 91 / 0 10 10 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
LONG TERM...HURT
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