436
FXUS62 KTBW 091238
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
838 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 837 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH DAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RECOVER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL REMAIN LOW AGAIN TODAY WITH
ONLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, BUT WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MID/LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
TRANSITION DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE EASTERLY GRADIENT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN WITH THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDING
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...SHIFTING HIGHEST POPS TO OVER THE INTERIOR.
ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND, BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
LIGHT WESTERLY WITH HIGHEST POPS AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOVE LOCALLY
ONSHORE EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND A
SEABREEZE KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND RSW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT PUSH WEST LOCALLY OFFSHORE BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING/DISSIPATING. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST,
MAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 78 92 78 / 0 10 40 20
FMY 94 77 94 76 / 30 30 60 40
GIF 92 75 93 74 / 10 10 60 20
SRQ 93 77 92 76 / 10 10 40 30
BKV 93 74 94 73 / 10 10 50 10
SPG 93 78 93 78 / 0 10 30 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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