674
FXUS62 KTBW 091750
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MOISTURE IS SLOWLY RETURNING AFTER A DRY WEEKEND, HOWEVER ARE
MORNING SOUNDING IS SHOWING PW AROUND 1.25. THIS IS STILL TO DRY TO
PRODUCE OUR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT WE WILL
HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
PWS LOOK TO FINALLY GET NEAR 2 INCHES TOMORROW WHICH WILL BRING BACK
OUR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH RIDGING
STAYING TO OUR NORTH BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW TYPICALLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. RIDGING START TO
MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING US TO A MORE
NEUTRAL FLOW REGIME. THIS NEUTRAL REGIME SHOULD FAVOR STORMS IN
THE INTERIOR BOTH DAYS. TYPICALLY IN THIS REGIME OUR STORM MOTIONS
ARE VERY SLOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE THE
STORMS DO FORM.
BY NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF FLORIDA
BRINGING A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS BRINGS THE HIGHEST
STORMS CHANCES OVER TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE WEST COAST DOES TEND TO SEE A FEW
MORNING SHOWERS IN THIS REGIME AS STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE GULF
MOVE ON SHORE BEFORE WEAKENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND A
SEABREEZE KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS. MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING ALONG WITH THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND AND PUSH OFF THE COAST IN THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF DRIER AIR BEFORE MOISTURE AND
STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF OUR WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 78 92 78 / 0 10 40 20
FMY 94 77 94 76 / 30 30 60 40
GIF 92 75 93 74 / 10 10 60 20
SRQ 93 77 92 76 / 10 10 40 30
BKV 93 74 94 73 / 10 10 50 10
SPG 93 78 93 78 / 0 10 30 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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